The European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) builds on the most up-to-date expectations for the selected target years, guided by policy frameworks and stakeholders’ expert views. The 2023 assessment is carried out for four target years, namely 2025, 2028, 2030 and 2033.

Two complementary scenarios derived from the same input data have been addressed in the ERAA 2023: Scenario A (Central Reference), where the climate year representation in the Economic Viability Assessment (EVA) is calibrated based on the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of the ERAA 2022 adequacy results aiming at the consistency of this indicator throughout the economic viability and adequacy analyses; Scenario B (Sensitivity), where the climate year representation in the economic viability analysis is calculated according to the ERAA 2022 methodology, aiming at the consistency of the total system costs throughout the EVA.

Both central reference scenario and sensitivity provide relevant information. They are the outcome of an economic viability assessment implemented on the same three climate years but with different weights assigned to each of them. The central reference scenario provides the basis for the identification of resource adequacy concerns. The sensitivity complements the central reference scenario. In particular, it illustrates the extent to which the adequacy assessment is sensitive to the weights assigned to the climate years.

ERAA 2023 does not include a scenario with capacity mechanisms (CMs); however it should be noted that both scenarios A and B account for capacity mechanism contracts granted in any previous auction of any existing or approved capacity mechanism at the time of the assessment.

s part of the development of the ERAA 2023, ENTSO-E has sought to involve a wide range of stakeholders on all aspects of the study, for instance through consultations and webinars on input data, methodological insights, results and stakeholder feedback.

To make this information increasingly accessible and transparent for stakeholders, ENTSO-E has created a dedicated webpage where webinar recordings, responses to stakeholder questions and other key information regarding the ERAA implementation process are published.

The ERAA 2023 shows that in the given scenario and methodology framework, high volumes of fossil-fueled capacity are at risk of becoming economically non-viable in the next five years. In that context, the right incentives and/or targeted intervention will be necessary to avoid adequacy risks.

Growing variability in supply requires the implementation of new flexibility tools that facilitate the management of demand (ramps and peaks).

Despite slightly lower gas prices compared to the ERAA 2022 edition, the merit order between gas and coal put more pressure on gas technologies compared to coal in the short term (2025), and the trend is inverted from 2028, bringing gas before coal in the merit order.

Adequacy issues in one country are highly dependent on assumptions in neighbouring countries – and, reciprocally, any capacity investment in one country can greatly influence its neighbours. This highlights the importance of regional coordination in decision-making.